© Reuters. A general view of the Moscow International Business Centre, also known as “Moskva-City”, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in Moscow, Russia May 14, 2020. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
2/2
LONDON (Reuters) – JPMorgan (NYSE:) said on Thursday it expected Russia’s economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.
“A peak-to trough decline in Russian GDP is now expected at around 12%, comparable to 1998 (~10%) and 2008 (~11%) crises and COVID-19 shock (~9%)”, Anatoliy Shal at JPMorgan said in a note to clients.
JPMorgan expected exports to decline around 13% this year, domestic demand about 10% and imports by around 30%.
“What is clear though, is that Russia’s growing economic and political isolation will lead to lower growth in the long-run,” Shal added.
“We expect Russia’s growth at around zero next year (vs. -1.0% previously) and a trend growth of around 1% in the long-run.”
Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings